CURRENT PERFORMANCE AS AN INDICATOR OF THE FOREIGN STUDENTS’ KROK-2 LICENSE EXAMINATION RESULTS

Abstract

Introduction. The disciplines "Hygiene and Ecology" and "Hygienic Prevention of Diseases" play a key role in the formation of preventive thinking of a future doctor, which is especially relevant given the significant proportion of diseases associated with behavioral and environmental factors. The analysis of departmental data on foreign students, which combines descriptive statistics, correlations and regression modeling, is timely and practically significant for improving intra-course monitoring, targeted support and planning of preparation for the licensing exam.

Aim. To comprehensively assess the impact of indicators of current success of foreign students on the results of passing the licensing exam KROK-2 and its component - the subtest "Hygiene, Public Health", and on this basis to offer practical guidelines for early identification of risks and targeted training.

Materials and methods. A single-center retrospective quantitative study was conducted, during which a dataset of foreign students (n = 70, students who studied continuously and were in the 3rd year in 2021/2022 academic year and in the 6th year in 2024/2025 academic year) with depersonalized records of current performance for the 3rd and 6th years, ECTS scales, traditional grades, the final result of KROK-2 and the subtest "Hygiene, Public Health" (2025) was analyzed. Data processing and modeling were carried out in the Python environment using the pandas, numpy, scipy, statsmodels, scikit-learn and matplotlib packages for visualization.

Results. Current success in the 6th year is statistically related to the result of KROK-2, but explains a limited proportion of the variation in the result (R² ≈ 0.13-0.21). Indicators of the 3rd year provide moderate incremental value; the most informative is PC_3%. ECTS (6th year) acts as a suitable risk stratifier: categories D/E are associated with a decrease in the expected result from KROK-2 by approximately 11 percentage points compared to the reference C. Traditional assessments have a clear linear gradient: in the 6th year ≈+8.9 p.p./point, in the 3rd year – ≈+7.3 p.p./point. The Hygiene, Health Care subtest is poorly predicted by overall grades in the 6th year of study, highlighting the need for subject-specific interventions.

Conclusions. Multicollinearity between components of the 6th year of current control is high; the use of robust and regularized approaches confirmed the robustness of key findings under alternative specifications.